Arlen
8,154 recorded births · active 1909–2025
Compare Arlen →Living-age distribution
The median living Arlen is 43. If you meet a Arlen, there's about a 70% chance they're between 8 and 76 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Arlen: 1934. Down 67% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
85.8% male, 14.2% female.
Among males: median age 52 (8–77). Among females: median age 20 (6–37).
Rarity
Arlen ranks #3,163 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Arlens are 0.9x more common in the Midwest than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Arlen's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Arlen's modeled peak was #797 in 1934 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Arlen's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 114 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 1934 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Births have grown roughly 9% a year on average over the last 5 years, and Arlen hasn't yet revisited its historic peak.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Arlen isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Arlen enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.