Ashly
12,301 recorded births · active 1966–2025
Compare Ashly →Living-age distribution
The median living Ashly is 30. If you meet a Ashly, there's about a 70% chance they're between 15 and 40 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Ashly: 1987. Down 66% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
Ashly is almost always given to female babies — 99.1% female.
Rarity
Ashly ranks #2,477 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Ashlys are 1.4x more common in the West than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Ashly's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Ashly's modeled peak was #803 in 1986 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Ashly's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 60 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 1986 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Births have grown roughly 10% a year on average over the last 5 years, and Ashly hasn't yet revisited its historic peak.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Ashly isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Ashly enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.