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Ava

344,441 recorded births · active 1880–2025

Compare Ava →

Living-age distribution

The median living Ava is 13. If you meet a Ava, there's about a 70% chance they're between 6 and 20 years old.

Popularity arc

Peak Ava: 2007. Down 34% from peak.

Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.

Gender balance

Ava is almost always given to female babies — 99.9% female.

99.9%female
Male0.1%
Female99.9%

Rarity

Ava ranks #216 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.

99.8%more common
Commonness rank#216of 105,966

Name neighbors

People named Ava have popularity-curve siblings named:

NeveahCaidenAydinKamiyaAiden

Geographic fingerprint

Avas are 1.2x more common in the South than the national average.

Under-indexed
Over-indexed
Loading map…

Predictive modeling

Three statistical models, all fit to Ava's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.

Peak popularity prediction

Ava's modeled peak was #5 in 2016 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.

Top 1000 Reached in 1880
Top 500 Reached in 2000
Top 100 Reached in 2004
Top 50 Reached in 2005
Top 10 Reached in 2015

Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.

This forecasts Ava's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 146 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2016 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.

Name life-cycle stage

A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.

Declining

Births have shrunk about 10% a year on average over the last 5 years, and the decline is accelerating.

18
years since peak
↘ falling
overall trend
~42 years
estimated time left in top 1000

Popularity survival model

Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?

Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.

Ava has been in the Top 100 tier for 22 years running.

Chance Ava is still in Top 100 after:

88%
5 years
68%
10 years
40%
20 years

Median years remaining above Top 100: ~17. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.