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Blake

206,623 recorded births · active 1883–2025

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Living-age distribution

The median living Blake is 23. If you meet a Blake, there's about a 70% chance they're between 10 and 38 years old.

Popularity arc

Peak Blake: 2012. Down 53% from peak.

Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.

Gender balance

90% male, 10% female.

90%male
Male90%
Female10%

Rarity

Blake ranks #389 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.

99.6%more common
Commonness rank#389of 105,966

Name neighbors

People named Blake have popularity-curve siblings named:

PriyaBlayneKendallBradleeIan

Geographic fingerprint

Blakes are 1.3x more common in the Midwest than the national average.

Under-indexed
Over-indexed
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Predictive modeling

Three statistical models, all fit to Blake's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.

Peak popularity prediction

Blake's modeled peak was #98 in 2012 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.

Top 1000 Reached in 1954
Top 500 Reached in 1980
Top 100 Reached in 2012
Top 50
0% chance
Top 10
0% chance

Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.

This forecasts Blake's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 132 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2012 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.

Name life-cycle stage

A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.

Declining

Births have shrunk about 7% a year on average over the last 5 years.

13
years since peak
↘ falling
overall trend
~32 years
estimated time left in top 1000

Popularity survival model

Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?

Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.

Blake isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.

If Blake enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:

71%
5 years
63%
10 years
48%
20 years

Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.