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Cole

154,646 recorded births · active 1886–2025

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Living-age distribution

The median living Cole is 21. If you meet a Cole, there's about a 70% chance they're between 9 and 31 years old.

Popularity arc

Peak Cole: 2002. Down 55% from peak.

Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.

Gender balance

Cole is almost always given to male babies — 99.6% male.

99.6%male
Male99.6%
Female0.4%

Rarity

Cole ranks #494 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.

99.5%more common
Commonness rank#494of 105,966

Name neighbors

People named Cole have popularity-curve siblings named:

SahilCalebSkylerKaileeKarisma

Geographic fingerprint

Coles are 1.4x more common in the West than the national average.

Under-indexed
Over-indexed
Loading map…

Predictive modeling

Three statistical models, all fit to Cole's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.

Peak popularity prediction

Cole's modeled peak was #115 in 2002 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.

Top 1000 Reached in 1982
Top 500 Reached in 1983
Top 100
0% chance
Top 50
0% chance
Top 10
0% chance

Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.

This forecasts Cole's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 121 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2002 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.

Name life-cycle stage

A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.

Declining

Births have shrunk about 6% a year on average over the last 5 years, and the decline is accelerating.

23
years since peak
↘ falling
overall trend
~41 years
estimated time left in top 1000

Popularity survival model

Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?

Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.

Cole isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.

If Cole enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:

71%
5 years
63%
10 years
48%
20 years

Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.