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Darwin

26,436 recorded births · active 1881–2025

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Living-age distribution

The median living Darwin is 46. If you meet a Darwin, there's about a 70% chance they're between 11 and 73 years old.

Popularity arc

Peak Darwin: 1935. Down 55% from peak.

Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.

Gender balance

Darwin is almost always given to male babies — 99.6% male.

99.6%male
Male99.6%
Female0.5%

Rarity

Darwin ranks #1,607 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.

98.5%more common
Commonness rank#1,607of 105,966

Name neighbors

People named Darwin have popularity-curve siblings named:

ArlinArlynRosalynMarlinTeddy

Geographic fingerprint

Darwins are 1.5x more common in the Midwest than the national average.

Under-indexed
Over-indexed
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Predictive modeling

Three statistical models, all fit to Darwin's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.

Peak popularity prediction

Darwin's modeled peak was #640 in 1935 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.

Top 1000 Reached in 1915
Top 500
0% chance
Top 100
0% chance
Top 50
0% chance
Top 10
0% chance

Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.

This forecasts Darwin's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 131 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 1935 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.

Name life-cycle stage

A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.

Declining

Darwin's popularity has been easing lower recently, though not sharply enough to call it a steep decline.

90
years since peak
→ stable
overall trend
n/a
estimated time left in top 1000

Popularity survival model

Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?

Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.

Darwin isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.

If Darwin enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:

71%
5 years
63%
10 years
48%
20 years

Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.