Ernie
17,234 recorded births · active 1880–2025
Compare Ernie →Living-age distribution
The median living Ernie is 63. If you meet a Ernie, there's about a 70% chance they're between 37 and 77 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Ernie: 1945. Down 96% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
Ernie is almost always given to male babies — 98.4% male.
Rarity
Ernie ranks #2,025 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Ernies are 1.8x more common in the West than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Ernie's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Ernie's modeled peak was #649 in 1945 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Ernie's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 144 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 1945 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Ernie peaked in 1945 and now sits at roughly 4% of that peak, 80 years later — a name that was genuinely common once, now mostly heard from an older generation.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Ernie isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Ernie enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.