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Ethan

488,144 recorded births · active 1882–2025

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Living-age distribution

The median living Ethan is 19. If you meet a Ethan, there's about a 70% chance they're between 8 and 27 years old.

Popularity arc

Peak Ethan: 2002. Down 59% from peak.

Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.

Gender balance

Ethan is almost always given to male babies — 99.8% male.

99.8%male
Male99.8%
Female0.2%

Rarity

Ethan ranks #136 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.

99.9%more common
Commonness rank#136of 105,966

Name neighbors

People named Ethan have popularity-curve siblings named:

KalebHeavenOlyviaKamronIyanna

Geographic fingerprint

Ethans are 1.5x more common in the West than the national average.

Under-indexed
Over-indexed
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Predictive modeling

Three statistical models, all fit to Ethan's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.

Peak popularity prediction

Ethan's modeled peak was #3 in 2007 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.

Top 1000 Reached in 1971
Top 500 Reached in 1989
Top 100 Reached in 1997
Top 50 Reached in 2000
Top 10 Reached in 2002

Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.

This forecasts Ethan's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 126 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2007 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.

Name life-cycle stage

A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.

Declining

Births have shrunk about 4% a year on average over the last 5 years.

23
years since peak
↘ falling
overall trend
~36 years
estimated time left in top 1000

Popularity survival model

Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?

Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.

Ethan has been in the Top 100 tier for 29 years running.

Chance Ethan is still in Top 100 after:

74%
5 years
61%
10 years
37%
20 years

Median years remaining above Top 100: ~14. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.