Jade
109,166 recorded births · active 1944–2025
Compare Jade →Living-age distribution
The median living Jade is 20. If you meet a Jade, there's about a 70% chance they're between 6 and 33 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Jade: 2002. Down 13% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
5.2% male, 94.8% female.
Rarity
Jade ranks #654 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Jades are 1.7x more common in the West than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Jade's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Jade's modeled peak was #188 in 2002 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Jade's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 82 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2002 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Jade is holding within 13% of its all-time peak share and growth has flattened out — it's plateaued near the top rather than still climbing or sliding.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Jade isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Jade enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.