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Lucas

331,628 recorded births · active 1881–2025

Compare Lucas →

Living-age distribution

The median living Lucas is 14. If you meet a Lucas, there's about a 70% chance they're between 5 and 32 years old.

Popularity arc

Peak Lucas: 2017. Down 11% from peak.

Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.

Gender balance

Lucas is almost always given to male babies — 99.8% male.

99.8%male
Male99.8%
Female0.2%

Rarity

Lucas ranks #233 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.

99.8%more common
Commonness rank#233of 105,966

Name neighbors

People named Lucas have popularity-curve siblings named:

AmeerLilianaLeenaLukasElaina

Geographic fingerprint

Lucass are 1.3x more common in the West than the national average.

Under-indexed
Over-indexed
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Predictive modeling

Three statistical models, all fit to Lucas's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.

Peak popularity prediction

Lucas's modeled peak was #14 in 2021 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.

Top 1000 Reached in 1973
Top 500 Reached in 1977
Top 100 Reached in 2005
Top 50 Reached in 2010
Top 10
5% chance

Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.

This forecasts Lucas's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 138 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2021 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.

Name life-cycle stage

A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.

Peaking

Lucas is holding within 11% of its all-time peak share and growth has flattened out — it's plateaued near the top rather than still climbing or sliding.

8
years since peak
→ stable
overall trend
~37 years
estimated time left in top 1000

Popularity survival model

Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?

Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.

Lucas has been in the Top 100 tier for 21 years running.

Chance Lucas is still in Top 100 after:

86%
5 years
70%
10 years
40%
20 years

Median years remaining above Top 100: ~17. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.