Macey
11,587 recorded births · active 1900–2025
Compare Macey →Living-age distribution
The median living Macey is 21. If you meet a Macey, there's about a 70% chance they're between 11 and 30 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Macey: 2001. Down 74% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
Macey is almost always given to female babies — 99.9% female.
Rarity
Macey ranks #2,568 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Maceys are 1.2x more common in the South than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Macey's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Macey's modeled peak was #916 in 2001 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Macey's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 76 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2001 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Births have shrunk about 4% a year on average over the last 5 years.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Macey isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Macey enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.