Marcela
8,955 recorded births · active 1908–2025
Compare Marcela →Living-age distribution
The median living Marcela is 29. If you meet a Marcela, there's about a 70% chance they're between 10 and 49 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Marcela: 1999. Down 29% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
Marcela is almost always given to female babies — 100% female.
Rarity
Marcela ranks #3,008 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Marcelas are 2.0x more common in the West than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Marcela's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Marcela's modeled peak was #1,631 in 1991 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Marcela's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 111 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 1991 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Births have grown roughly 6% a year on average over the last 5 years, and Marcela hasn't yet revisited its historic peak.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Marcela isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Marcela enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.