Scarlette
5,806 recorded births · active 1940–2025
Compare Scarlette →Living-age distribution
The median living Scarlette is 10. If you meet a Scarlette, there's about a 70% chance they're between 4 and 19 years old.
Popularity arc
Peak Scarlette: 2016. Down 36% from peak.
Projected: the dashed 10-year forecast (Holt damped-trend exponential smoothing, fit to recent years), with a shaded 95% interval.
Gender balance
Scarlette is almost always given to female babies — 100% female.
Rarity
Scarlette ranks #3,838 out of 105,966 names ever recorded by the SSA.
Geographic fingerprint
Scarlettes are 1.5x more common in the West than the national average.
Predictive modeling
Three statistical models, all fit to Scarlette's own SSA history plus the historical behavior of every other name in the dataset.
Peak popularity prediction
Scarlette's modeled peak was #1,318 in 2016 — its trend isn't projected to beat that.
Projects the trend forward, then converts share into rank using this year's popularity distribution.
This forecasts Scarlette's share of births by fitting a damped-trend model to its last 79 years of data and projecting 10 years forward with a widening uncertainty band. Each projected share is then translated into a rank by comparing it against 2025's actual name-popularity distribution — so the model implicitly assumes the overall shape of that distribution doesn't shift much over the forecast window. Its trend is projected to stay below its historic best over the next 10 years, so the model treats 2016 as its peak. Milestone probabilities come from how much of each year's uncertainty band clears that milestone's rank, combined across years as if they were independent — which slightly overstates the odds for names sitting right at a threshold, since a good year is usually followed by another good year rather than an independent coin flip.Name life-cycle stage
A rule-based classifier over recent growth, momentum, and peak proximity.
Births have shrunk about 9% a year on average over the last 5 years, and the decline is accelerating.
Popularity survival model
Once a name reaches a rank tier, how long does it typically stay there before falling out?
Built from a Kaplan-Meier survival curve: every historical run any name has ever had above this tier, with runs still ongoing today counted as still in progress rather than as an exit.Scarlette isn't currently in the Top 100 tier. Estimated chance of entering it in the forecast window: 0%.
If Scarlette enters Top 100, chance it's still there after:
Names that do enter Top 100 have historically stayed a median of ~19 years. Based on 668 historical Top 100 runs across every name in the dataset.